Fuel Switching Policies

New energy stock requirements are created each year to satisfy economic driver growth, to replace retiring stock, or other factors. Details about the stocks and flows portion of the demand modules is located in the Volume 2 Demand Sector Structure Overview documentation. The market share determines which technology is selected when adding new energy stock for a given modeled year.


Initial market share values in the forecast are output from the model calibration and projected using the selected statistical method. The xMMSF variable can be directly given a different value in a policy file and the model will re-calibrate market shares and re-project the forecasted value to match the new value given market share inputs from a base case. This means that the model aligns parameters to attempt to reproduce the new market share value, but leaves the actual market share endogenous and responsive to other changes in the policy (such as fuel prices, efficiencies, etc). Optionally, a policy file can set a market share to be fully exogenous to reproduce the exact input value regardless of another forecast changes.

  • Examples:  Trans_MS_HDV_Electric_BC.jl, Ind_MS_Biomass_Exo.jl
  • Market Share Fraction (xMMSF)
  • Exogenous switch (MMSFSwitch) – Indicates whether market share is endogenous or exogenous (1=Endogenous, 0=Exogenous)
  • Exogenous Market Share (MMSFExogenous) - For exogenous policies only