Modifying Projection Methods
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Control Variables |
User-Set Value |
Methodology Options Of Projecting Calibration Variable into Future |
|
YPEMM YCERSM YCUF YDEMM YFsPEE YMMSM YCgCUF YCgMSM |
=1 |
Assign future values equal to exogenous values |
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=2 |
Assign future values equal to exogenous values scaled to the last historical year’s value |
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=3 |
Assign future values equal to last historical year’s value |
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=4 |
Assign future values equal to the mean of the historical values |
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=5 |
Trend the future values toward an exogenous value |
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=6 |
Develop a trend line from the historical values |
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=7 |
Develop an exponential trend line from the historical values |
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=8 |
Estimate a full asymptotic line from the historical values |
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=9 |
Estimate a particle asymptotic line from the historical values |
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=11 |
Develop projections based on maximum likelihood estimation |
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=16 |
Set future marginal value equal to last historical average value using last historical year input values |
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=17 |
Set future marginal value equal to last historical average value using trended input values. |
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=18 |
Set future marginal value equal to an exogenous value. |